Verification using extreme events

This page shows how well Prediktor has predicted all extreme events (=storms) in the test period which ran from 1 Jan 1997 to 31 Aug 1998, a period of almost two years.

An extreme event is defined as being an event where the production rose from nothing to full installed capacity in a short period or when the production decreased from full production to nothing. Here we take 'nothing' to mean less than 10% of the installed capacity and 'full installed capacity' to mean above 80% of the installed capacity.

First the results are given in tabular form and then as graphs.

Results in tabular form

Below are two tables one for all storms found in 1997 and one for 1998. The column labeled "Start" indicates the date (day/month) when the storm began, the one labled "End" when it ended. The column labled "Notes" describes the preformance. Click on the year to go to a graphical overview of that year's storms, click on a row to zoom in on a graphic of that particular storm (in a new window).

Results in graphical form

1997:

1998:

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Lars Landberg, Risų National Laboratory
2000-05-09